The latest results from our quarterly CEO Confidence Tracker October 2024 paint a mixed picture on senior leadership sentiment towards the budget.
‘However, in the short term, this is a tough Budget for businesses’ opines one of our CEOS. With the Budget now in the open, the analyses are coming in; and the CBI’s appraisal of the Budget finds a balance that is vital to any economic analysis. Things will be tough in the near future, but, to the CBI, the long term view was at the heart of this Budget: ‘[it will] provide certainty and predictability within the tax system for businesses…which is key to unlocking growth.’
But prospective eventual growth does not comfort all CEOs. One doesn’t believe that ‘the Government understands or even cares about business growth’ while another was even more vociferous: ‘Labour has no idea how to stimulate growth’. An immediate backlash is clear; and given the increase in National Insurance, for employers the Budget seems all stick and no carrot. Global malaise and ‘tough geo political situations’ help to make it and unsurprising that 25% of respondents are either ‘Not that confident’ or ‘Not confident at all’ about the future performance of their business.
But, as always, there is another side to the coin. The ‘certainty and predictability’ brought by the Budget, according to the CBI, is exactly why some CEOs are viewing it more positively. Several mention their ‘strong order books for 2025’ thanks to this certainty. Another comments on ‘the domestic stability in our local markets which allows investment decisions and conversations on growth to take place in our market’. The Budget therefore may have revealed a few nasty body blows, but the coming rounds are looking far more manageable. Is this the last rough period before it all starts to calm down again?
All CEOs will hope so although their optimism in previous quarters (which began at 13% ‘Very confident’ at the start of the year has now dropped to 5%) indicating that this confidence may now be waning.